This is the first time after multiple assembly elections, when the Samajwadi Party is not participating in the Bihar assembly elections. The party has announced its support to the Jatiya Janata Party in the elections. The decision of the Samajwadi Party, which won four seats in the 2005 elections, could be beneficial to the grand alliance in those constituencies where competition is very close.
The absence of the Samajwadi Party in the Bihar Assembly elections will directly benefit the RJD-Congress alliance. Because, the vote bank of the grand alliance and the socialist party is one. In such a situation, the SP could lose the direct vote in the grand alliance. However, the Samajwadi Party’s vote share in Bihar has been steadily declining for the last several elections.
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In the 2005 election, the SP won four seats with 2.7 percent of the vote. However, the SP did not win a single seat in the 2010 elections. The SP was with the grand alliance at the beginning of the 2015 elections after disagreements over seat-sharing broke out. But despite all efforts, the party was able to get one percent of the vote.
In Bihar, the Samajwadi Party may have one per cent of the vote, but for the grand alliance candidates, it will prove decisive in many constituencies. Especially in his seat where the margin of victory or defeat is less than one or two thousand. In the 2015 elections, the margin of victory and defeat in seven seats was less than one thousand. The BJP and JDU have won four of these seats.
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A large section of the party interior is also looking at keeping the SP separate from the Bihar elections with a change of leadership. Because, Akhilesh Yadav is now leading the team. But at the same time, he believes that the direct election of SP in Bihar will have a direct impact on UP. By contesting the elections, it would indicate that the party is contesting the Assembly elections for the benefit of the BJP.
The vote bank of RJD and SP is one
The vote bank of RJD and SP is one. Both parties politicize the Yadav and Muslim equations. One SP leader said that in the current political scenario, the BJP-JDU vote would have been split if they had contested the elections. The direct loss will be to the RJD-Congress alliance. It would have been fine to stay as far as Bihar, but would have sent the wrong message to UP.