CoronaVirus Third Wave: Indian scientists have told that if a new mutant of corona comes, then the cases of corona will increase rapidly in October-November. Also said that to avoid the third wave, be careful from now on, follow the guidelines.
CoronaVirus Third Wave: A scientist of the government committee related to modeling of the Kovid-19 epidemic has said that if we do not follow the corona guidelines properly, then the third wave of corona virus may reach its peak between October-November, but there is no need to worry more. There is no need, as a possible third wave may see half of the daily cases reported during the second wave of corona-infected people. Also Read – Desi Vaccine Ka Dum: Bharat Biotech Claims – Corona’s indigenous vaccine Covaxin is also 65.2% effective on Delta variants
Manindra Agarwal, working on the ‘formula model’ or mathematical estimation of Kovid-19, also said that if a new form of the virus arises, the third wave can spread faster, but it will be half as fast as the second wave. Also Read – Delhi Unlock: Markets have reopened in these areas of Delhi, traders promised – Corona Guidelines will be followed
Agarwal said, the delta form is infecting people who were infected with a different type. So it has been kept in mind. He said that as the vaccination campaign progresses, the possibility of a third or fourth wave will reduce. Also Read – Corona Virus In India: These 6 states increased the concern of the government, special team sent to control Covid-19
Let us inform that the Department of Science and Technology of India had constituted a committee last year to forecast the increase in the cases of corona virus infection using mathematical models and this committee included scientist Manindra Agarwal of IIT Kanpur, besides IIT Hyderabad. Scientist M Vidyasagar and Deputy Chief of Integrated Defense Staff (Medical) Lt Gen Madhuri Kanitkar are also involved.
Earlier this committee had also faced criticism for not predicting the exact nature of the second wave of Kovid. Manindra Aggarwal said that while estimating the third wave, the loss of immunity, the effect of vaccination and the possibility of a more dangerous nature were factored in, which was not done during the modeling of the second wave. Regarding this, he said that a detailed report will be published soon.
“We have made three scenarios. One is ‘optimistic’. In this, we believe that life returns to normal by August, and there will be no resurgence of the virus. The second is ‘intermediate’. In this we believe that vaccination is 20 percent less effective than the optimistic scenario assumptions.
In another tweet, Agarwal said, ‘The third one is ‘pessimistic’. One assumption is different from intermediate—a new, 25 percent more infectious mutated form may spread in August (it’s not Delta Plus, and no more contagious than Delta). According to the graph shared by Agarwal, the second wave is likely to stabilize by mid-August, and the third wave may reach its peak between October and November.
The scientist said that in case of a ‘pessimistic’ scenario, in the third wave, the number of cases in the country could rise between 1,50,000 to 2,00,000 daily. He said this figure is half the number of cases at the peak of the second wave in the first half of May, when hospitals were flooded with patients and thousands of people died.